Florida Election Day margin vs. the Nixon and Jolly lines

The chart shows the R-minus-D party margin of all Election Day ballots cast in Florida since 7 AM ET. Higher is worse for Democrats. The three lines are fixed and never move. R+20, Nixon + Jolly favored: about R+8 in total turnout, the Nixon campaign's target. R+25, Jolly favored; Nixon long shot: Jolly's break-even, since he runs about 2 pts ahead of Nixon in same-pollster polls. R+30, either win unlikely: Jolly's best-case break-even. Between gold and green, Nixon's chances improve the closer the margin gets to green; her rough tossup point is about R+23.5 (our model's best case, also @LinkofSunshine's total R+9 tossup mark). Zones: Both favored at or below R+20, Jolly favored, Nixon in play up to R+25, Uphill for both up to R+30, Unlikely for either above R+30. For reference, A Fight Worth Having published similar cutoffs (R+21 and R+27).

Total turnout margin, votes cast so far (our calc.)

The lines mark where the final total lands for each zone, so they only compare cleanly once Election Day voting is done. Until then this line reads low and climbs as votes come in; the current zone comes from the Election Day chart above.

Last updated 4:31 PM ET (checks every 10 minutes; page reloads every 5). Before 9:10 AM: statewide totals posted on X by @umichvoter, @sthepoliticguy and @ZacharyDonnini. From 9:10 AM: 66 county Turnout Quick View feeds by party (VR Systems) plus Broward's Election Day ballots by party from the Broward Supervisor of Elections live turnout-by-party dashboard. If that dashboard is down or behind, Broward's total comes from Florida Election Watch with the last live Broward split applied (or Broward's certified 2022 Election Day split, D+9.5, if no live split was ever read), and that point is marked est. Readings from 9:10 AM up to 12:23 PM were taken before the live Broward split was read, so they are re-estimated (est.): each uses Election Watch's Broward total at that time with Broward's real Election Day split from 12:09 PM (D+7.0). No reading exists between 7:40 and 8:33 AM; the line just connects the readings on either side.