Florida Election Day margin vs. the Nixon and Jolly lines

The chart shows the R-minus-D party margin of all Election Day ballots cast in Florida since 7 AM ET. Higher is worse for Democrats. The three lines are fixed and never move. R+20, Nixon + Jolly favored: about R+8 in total turnout, the Nixon campaign's target. R+25, Jolly favored; Nixon long shot: Jolly's break-even, since he runs about 2 pts ahead of Nixon in same-pollster polls. R+30, either win unlikely: Jolly's best-case break-even. Between gold and green, Nixon's odds improve the closer the margin gets to green: in our central case she is about even near R+19, and only her best case holds near R+23.8. Our model leaves out Gillespie (if he takes about 2%, Nixon's ties move about 2 pts lower) and mail ballots arriving today (likely moving her ties about 1 pt in her favor). Zones: Both favored at or below R+20, Jolly favored, Nixon an underdog up to R+25, Uphill for both up to R+30, Unlikely for either above R+30. For reference, A Fight Worth Having published similar cutoffs (R+21 and R+27).

Total turnout margin, votes cast so far (our calc.)

Each curve is what the total so far would be if today's ballots were exactly R+20, R+25 or R+30 (the same fixed standard as the chart above, which never moves). They rise because each Election Day ballot is a bigger share of the total, so this chart always shows the same zone as the Election Day chart; at about 2.55M Election Day ballots they finish at R+8.0, R+9.6 and R+11.2.

Last updated 5:58 PM ET (checks every 10 minutes; page reloads every 5). Before 9:10 AM: statewide totals posted on X by @umichvoter, @sthepoliticguy and @ZacharyDonnini. From 9:10 AM: 66 county Turnout Quick View feeds by party (VR Systems) plus Broward's Election Day ballots by party from the Broward Supervisor of Elections live turnout-by-party dashboard. If that dashboard is down or behind, Broward's total comes from Florida Election Watch with the last live Broward split applied (or Broward's certified 2022 Election Day split, D+9.5, if no live split was ever read), and that point is marked est. Readings from 9:10 AM up to 12:23 PM were taken before the live Broward split was read, so they are re-estimated (est.): each uses Election Watch's Broward total at that time with Broward's real Election Day split from 12:09 PM (D+7.0). No reading exists between 7:40 and 8:33 AM; the line just connects the readings on either side.