What Angie Nixon needs: Election Day margin vs. her ceiling

Cumulative R-minus-D party margin of Election Day ballots in Florida since polls opened at 7 AM ET. To keep her path, the cumulative margin needs to stay at or below about R+23.7 (est.). Higher on the chart is worse for Nixon.

Last updated 2:33 PM ET (checks every 10 minutes; page reloads every 5). Before 9:10 AM: statewide totals posted on X by @umichvoter, @sthepoliticguy and @ZacharyDonnini. From 9:10 AM: 66 county Turnout Quick View feeds by party (VR Systems) plus Broward's Election Day ballots by party from the Broward Supervisor of Elections live turnout-by-party dashboard. If that dashboard is down or behind, Broward's total comes from Florida Election Watch with the last live Broward split applied (or Broward's certified 2022 Election Day split, D+9.5, if no live split was ever read), and that point is marked est. Readings from 9:10 AM up to 12:23 PM were taken before the live Broward split was read, so they are re-estimated (est.): each uses Election Watch's Broward total at that time with Broward's real Election Day split from 12:09 PM (D+7.0). No reading exists between 7:40 and 8:33 AM; the line just connects the readings on either side.